Our challenge: We live in a fragile and increasingly divided world. Our societies are ideologically torn, institutions are losing trust and in times of crisis we are faced with inefficient and perhaps chaotic emergency management. But crises know no ideologies - they require us to find solutions that work beyond political conflicts.
Key takeaways - What could be solutions?
✔ Functional cooperation instead of ideological unity: Instead of hoping that everyone shares the same values, we need to create structures that nevertheless work together operationally.
✔ Decentralized, autonomous emergency networks: Centralized response systems no longer work - we need resilient local structures that act pragmatically.
✔ Neutral, non-partisan crisis communication: Fake news and mistrust are the biggest threats - trustworthy communication hubs can provide clarity here.
✔ Use the economy as a stabilizing force: Companies are neutral and have great resources - they could act as non-partisan supply structures.
✔ Wargaming as a test instrument for realistic scenarios: We need to test new crisis models through simulations to find out which approaches really work.
✔ Pragmatism over ideology: the involvement of all stakeholders is crucial - only those who are flexible and open will find real solutions in times of crisis - ideological blockades must be overcome.
Why should we act now?
Our society is not only fragile, it is gradually disintegrating. Technological advances are driving change on a massive scale and at enormous speed, but more and more people are physically and mentally overwhelmed and exhausted. Social capital is weakened. Networks that were once quite viable are slowly disintegrating or have long since done so.
Do we wait for central structures to help us and try to repair and “patch up” the broken systems or do we also manage to build our own functional and resilient networks that can actively respond to crises and activate cooperation on their own?
Resilience also means basing our own existing resources not on political ideals, but on functional mechanisms. This should also involve targeted cooperation in key areas such as security, infrastructure, emergency aid and healthcare.
The question is (unfortunately) no longer whether our societies are fragile, because we have known that for a long time - YES they are! The only question is: how do we deal with this reality?
We are at a very important turning point here. Either our society continues to disintegrate or we create a new way of working together.
What do you think about rethinking social capital?
Away from shared ideals and towards functional cooperation. In my view, social capital is traditionally also based on shared values, mutual trust and social networking. But if these elements are broken, we now urgently need to ask ourselves: what remains as a foundation?
The answer could lie in functional cooperation, i.e. even if different groups are politically and ideologically divided, there are certainly common goals that affect everyone. Interfaces could then be security, infrastructure, emergency aid and healthcare. We should abandon the idea that social capital is only based on deep trust. It can also take the form of coordinated and purpose-driven networks that work together despite differences.
A few important thoughts ... Because we have to look this existing fact realistically in the eye, glossing over and “talking down” doesn't really help anyone and here emergency managers should ALWAYS rely on “wargaming/disaster wargaming” in any case.
A wargaming scenario can always help to make the strengths and weaknesses of decentralized emergency management in a divided society more tangible. I will try to create a realistic scenario that simulates the dynamics of authorities, community networks and conflict zones in a somewhat visible way.
Wargaming scenario: National crisis in a divided society
Our initial situation: A series of extreme weather events have caused massive damage to our country's infrastructure. Our communication routes are severely restricted, our fuel supply has collapsed and several provinces (counties) are affected. The first 24-48 hours after the severe crisis are crucial for us. Initial measures are already being taken, but the deep-rooted social division is causing serious problems.
The challenge we are facing: Our population is highly divided and also fragile - some groups no longer recognize the government, authorities and many state institutions and reject central emergency aid. Others rely on state structures, but these are already overburdened and have reached their limits.
Possible players in our scenario:
Let's now play a little “wargaming” in our minds and look at the situation together and “impartially” from above
Phase 1: Start of the crisis & initial reactions
⦿ Authorities launch an emergency program, but some regions/districts refuse to cooperate. A lack of trust in central decisions inevitably leads to regional administrations now taking their own measures. Communication channels are already overloaded and conflicting instructions make coordination much more difficult. A lack of cooperation leads to inefficient processes. Emergency scenarios are often chaotic and require the coordinated interaction of many players. But without good networking between the police, fire department, rescue services, medical personnel and the social capital in the population, time is lost due to poor coordination because units do not cooperate efficiently, inconsistent deployment strategies that make rescue operations more difficult and, of course, unnecessary duplication of work or resource bottlenecks because there is no coordinated planning.
⦿ Community networks react quickly, coordinate internally, but mistrust external operations/employees. Trust deficits prevent effective communication. Some local groups are already completely refusing government assistance and relying solely on their own resources. Fragmented information dissemination leads to chaos and very contradictory reports about the crisis that has occurred. Crises require quick, clear and coordinated responses. But without trust between responders, authorities and the population, misinformation and confusion arise that hinder life-saving actions, panic and resistance to safety instructions because people are unsure who to believe and, of course, rumors and disinformation that delay decisions and lead to misconduct.
⦿ Companies provide logistical support but are (very) reluctant to do so as there is no clear cooperation model. A lack of mobilization weakens the ability to respond, i.e. a lack of optimized coordination between the public administration and the private sector leads to an inefficient allocation of resources and perhaps vital equipment remains unused because no one is aware of what is available. Many companies are now unsure whether they should actively help or prefer to remain on hold as there are no legal safeguards.
⦿ Social polarization is making disaster relief considerably more difficult. Ideological camps are forming that strictly reject both state and alternative aid. Initial attempts to organize central contact points fail completely as different groups do not want to work together.
⦿ Mental stress is completely underestimated. Our everyday heroes are under enormous pressure - both physically and mentally - and this is where social capital plays a very crucial role. Firefighters, police officers, paramedics and other emergency responders are regularly exposed to extremely stressful situations, but without a strong network of trust, support and community resilience, they fall into a downward spiral.
A lack of social capital then leads to
We enter Phase 2: Escalation & Threat to Order - After several days without a consistent structure, the system increasingly descends into chaos.
⦿ Our supply chains continue to break down - some groups are now starting their own resource distribution, while others are still hoping for external help. Privatized emergency networks are emerging, but they only serve members of certain groups. Fierce competition between the various networks is now inevitably leading to massive conflicts over food, energy, fuel and even needed medicines and bandages.
⦿ Conflicts arise between autonomous emergency groups and government response teams as protocols are not coordinated. Autonomous groups are now blocking government aid deliveries because they distrust them. Our emergency teams are now forced to adapt their emergency protocols to avoid escalation.
⦿ Economic players now fear chaos, but they have also not created sufficient structures in the past to provide decentralized help. As a result, companies could now withdraw completely from the emergency supply chain for safety reasons. A lack of legal clarity then prevents logistics companies from responding quickly and in a coordinated manner.
⦿ Disinformation and rival networks further exacerbate the crisis. Fake news leads to panic and possible unexpected refugee movements. Rival groups are sabotaging key infrastructure projects in order to assert and advance their own interests.
We are now entering phase 3, which is about solution strategies and stabilization - now that it has become clear that the traditional emergency strategy is not working as originally desired, new and flexible models must be implemented.
💡 Building strong local networks as the key to crisis management: Good social networking makes it much easier to access private resources in times of crisis. However, effective emergency aid should not depend solely on state institutions - it requires strong, resilient local networks that can organize themselves independently, react flexibly to challenges and act independently of political fluctuations. In order to create long-term stability, targeted initiatives are needed to develop local resilience structures, as political priorities often directly influence the availability of important (required) resources. Those who rely exclusively on central control risk delays and bottlenecks in an emergency.
What would be necessary for this?
✔ Proactive strategies for crisis management at regional level - before a critical power vacuum occurs.
✔ Neutralized, independent coordination teams that act as mediators between authorities and community groups.
✔ Expanded regional decision-making structures that maintain their own competencies within a non-partisan cooperation framework.
✔ Digital communication platforms for transparent resource allocation, independent of political influence.
✔ Proven decentralized disaster management systems such as CERT or the THW, which can serve as models for resilient networks.
Resource scarcity and political priorities are a constant point of contention that often delays or even blocks emergency plans. Strengthening local, non-partisan networks could ensure that emergency aid remains efficient, coordinated and strategically effective, above all independently of political processes.
💡 Networks of trust with emergency services are essential to ensure that safety instructions are not only disseminated quickly, but also accepted and followed. Without these networks, many uncertainties, misunderstandings and, of course, resistance among the population arise, which can severely hamper rescue operations.
Concrete approaches to establishing networks of trust
Creating local partnerships between the civilian population and the emergency services. I always like to think back to how my dad introduced and taught me about the important topic of “social capital”. Not only was he a shop steward in our neighborhood, but he was also a civil defense instructor in addition to his job. Even when I was younger, it was very important to him that I not only developed an interest in his profession and that of my mother, but also in the professions of my friends' parents.
I got to know an enormous variety and complexity, such as radio and communications, military, criminal and police professions, fire department, order & security, health professions, various engineering professions, research & university, teacher & educator, secretary & assistant, accountant & controller, retail and logistics, the profession of pharmacist, choirmaster, artist & photographer, train driver, quality inspector, measuring technician and also the profession of master baker, cook and gardener. Today, I hardly know any children who are introduced to the important topic of “social capital” in this way by their parents and who therefore “develop” and build up a view of the bigger picture at an early age.
What were my advantages from the fact that my dad in particular was my lovingly strict teacher for appropriate social capital?
Even though I had an excellent school education myself, these alone could never have contributed to this wonderful diversity of strategic foresight and mindset, deep social commitment and roots, a keen sense of interpersonal dynamics, interdisciplinary and diverse education and expertise, sustainable stability and resilience (in myself). Because I have not only “collected” a (great) deal of knowledge, but have also really actively put it into practice.
Thank you dad, thank you mom!
Why is social capital essential for the stability of our security structures?
Firstly, of course, there is the fact that there is a shortage of skilled workers. Targeted mentoring programs and the exchange of experience in professional networks could get more people interested in security-related professions.
Secondly, there are political uncertainties and a lack of resilience, i.e. in times of political change, stable networks of trust are simply absolutely essential to ensure a crisis response capability.
Thirdly, community-based resource utilization is true “gold”, as socially networked disaster relief can partially compensate for the lack of skilled workers and often equipment. Without collective networks, rapid mobilization is impossible. Crises often require the (very) rapid provision of goods, helpers and infrastructure.
But what if the friendly support from the community that could provide important first aid is missing?
Without coordinated networks, there is no mobilization of volunteers. Perhaps many could help, but don't know where or how to get involved. Many cities and municipalities only have centrally managed emergency concepts that do not actively involve citizens and the valuable experience and local networks are not optimally utilized, which slows down rescue measures. Escape routes and safe assembly points are not clearly communicated and not known to everyone. Help is often organized by a few central offices instead of activating local networks that could respond more quickly. Emergency stocks are often not available locally and are difficult to access. Many modern risks such as cyber attacks, pandemics, toxic substances and many more require flexible networks that can also react quickly. Strong social capital could help to spread knowledge about new dangers quickly. Without strong networks of trust between authorities and citizens, instructions in crisis situations will not be followed.
What if effective supply chains are missing because local businesses and citizens are not coordinated in time?
Companies could perhaps provide many more critical resources (transportation, shelter, water, medical supplies and also personnel), but due to a lack of networking, many resources remain unused and undiscovered, as emergency preparedness is often not an integral part of corporate responsibility.
What if there is a lack of flexibility in the event of unforeseen problems because individual actors act in isolation?
Programs such as “Coffee with a Cop” have already established themselves as effective trust-builders between police and citizens (although there are still far too few of these and they do not exist across the board), but what about similar initiatives for firefighters and emergency managers?
Here I see a clear lack of public interfaces, because the public perceives the fire department and emergency management as reactive forces rather than preventative partners. Of course, it is also due to the perception of the professions, as the police are often directly involved in our everyday civic affairs, while firefighters and emergency managers often only become visible in crisis situations due to their operational focus.
Social capital strategies should link the fire department and emergency management much more closely with the population in order to improve preventative security, trust and also the overall social resilience to crises!
The lack of involvement of vulnerable groups in security strategies is also a problem and strong social capital could help to create individual emergency strategies for vulnerable groups. This is because many vulnerable people are dependent on rapid assistance in the event of a crisis, but often do not have direct access to appropriate rescue networks themselves. Strong social capital, e.g. the establishment of local emergency groups with direct contact persons for particularly vulnerable people, neighborhood groups for risk analyses and a massive strengthening of crisis preparedness through neighborhood networks could help to close these gaps.
Because it is clear that without the appropriate social capital, vulnerable groups in crisis situations remain without adequate protection!
A program such as “Coffee with a Firefighter”, “Coffee with a Crisis Manager” or “Crisis Talks” could provide an essential bridge between emergency services and the population for a direct exchange. Also conceivable are community safety groups in which neighbors discuss dangerous situations together with emergency services or local early warning systems that not only offer technical solutions but are also based on personal trust.
The meetings should then be a mixture of informal exchange and targeted knowledge transfer
✔ Location: community centers, fire stations, local cafés or local businesses
✔ Possible frequency: Monthly or quarterly to ensure continuous contact at all times
✔ Participants: firefighters, disaster managers, emergency doctors, local authorities and citizens of all ages
To increase participation among the population, the meetings should also include practical exercises
✔ Simulated evacuation exercises: Joint walk-throughs for various emergencies (fire, flood, chemical accidents).
✔ A hazard question and answer session where citizens can find out about specific threats and ask their own questions.
✔ Offer practical training: How to use fire extinguishers, first aid, behavior in panic situations.
✔ Digital security: cybersecurity workshops to minimize risks in the area of critical infrastructure. General radio and telecommunications training.
Educational institutions (kindergarten, school, evening and language schools, university, driving school), companies and training companies as well as the promotion of local help networks so that the population can support each other should be proactively integrated into emergency strategies.
Social capital and technological innovations such as AR training as a real strategic advantage
Why modern training methods could significantly strengthen social networks among emergency services?
Traditional training is often used in isolation, while AR-supported scenarios could deepen network connections and better simulate real-world collaborative behavior. The focus should be on linking social networks with realistic operational scenarios.
💡 Establishing global research networks without political influence
Scientific findings are a decisive factor for effective emergency and disaster management. However, research and data processing are often subject to political and economic influence - with far-reaching consequences for transparency and access to vital information. To prevent this, independent global research networks should be established that operate free from manipulation and provide objective data for the global community.
Possible key measures for an independent research landscape
💡 Development of network-based disaster prevention. Instead of relying exclusively on external aid, the focus should be placed more on self-organization and cross-sectoral cooperation. Strengthen local leadership roles that could also work independently of government decisions. Promote local volunteer and community initiatives as flexible and direct responders. Motivating businesses to see community engagement not as a duty, but as a genuine and valuable strategic investment in all our futures. Better local financial planning so that there is less reliance on central government funding and also greater use of alternative funding models such as community-based funds and crowdsourcing to enable rapid response. Building comprehensive resilience mechanisms for counties, municipalities and cities so that the population is actively involved in reconstruction and preparedness.
💡 The business sector as a “neutral” mediator and resilient support for emergency and disaster management. The private sector can act as a neutral mediator by providing efficient logistics, infrastructure and important resources without becoming entangled in political conflicts. The plus point here is that companies often have more physical resources (equipment, logistics, transport and often the corresponding personnel) than the public sector and would therefore also have a neutral and non-political stabilization function.
💡 Creation of common security protocols for ALL players
💡 Reduction of ideological fragmentation in crisis management:
A possible conclusion: Lessons from the wargaming scenario
✔ Centralized control alone does not work - cooperation requires decentralized, trust-based networks.
✔ Neutrality is crucial - the more independent the interfaces, the more effective the collaboration.
✔ Pragmatism over ideology: The involvement of all stakeholders, regardless of their political position, is crucial.
✔ Business as a key player: Companies can build bridges between social groups if they act neutrally.
✔ Create new forms of coordination: Neutralized mediation structures must be created to overcome the deep divide.
✔ Information security as a stability factor: combating false information and avoiding disinformation campaigns.
✔ Autonomous systems cannot exist in isolation - they also need structures that enable coordination without control.
The future of emergency and crisis management does not lie in political power struggles, but in non-partisan, efficient networks. Neutrality, resilience and fact-based communication must take priority - because this is the only way a fragmented society can remain capable of acting.
Either we act now or we watch our structures continue to crumble.